back from making the rounds. We’ve asked NSA what chatter they are picking up, too.”
“If it is Idrissa, could he be in league with Oumar Diallo? Could this be General Diallo’s second bite at the cherry?”
“Could be.” Larissa nodded gently. “I’ll talk to the British high commissioner here and see what the Brits think. I assume they are tailing him in London. Maybe you can double back with your counterpart at the Foreign Office and see what they know, too.”
“Who else is really a player in Bamako?”
“The French still have eyes and ears here. I’ll talk to them, too, but their ambassador is old-school foreign ministry. I’m not sure he’ll have anything I can’t pick up myself on the cocktail circuit. You’ll have to find a contact in Paris that you can trust.”
“What about the neighbors?”
“They will stay quiet for a few days. I expect the United Nations and the African Union will both issue blanket condemnations of the coup, but no one will even start thinking seriously about next steps for at least a week. A strategy, much less a special envoy, is at least two weeks away. Maybe three.”
“That’s too long,” said Judd. “We are already more than ten hours into this. You and I need to figure out the pressure points. Can you feed the local press, make sure they know we won’t accept the coup, despite what they start hearing from the palace? What about leaking stories that the Americans are pissed off?”
“Sure. I can do that. I can reach out to local Imams, too. They are the real power brokers.”
“Good. What about the army? Can your defense attaché call the other military leaders and take their temperature? See who might still be loyal to Maiga? See if there’s a whiff of a countercoup brewing. That would be a lucky break. That’s Plan A.”
“I will ask Colonel Houston. He seems to have good access. The Malians love him.”
“We also need to keep Washington happy. Eventually you are going to have to give the counterterrorism guys more than what you gave the task force. I’ve been back in the office for twenty minutes and they’re already breathing down my neck. All right?”
“Yes.”
“Anything else that you’re not telling me, Larissa?”
“Keep this to yourself for now, Judd. There’s a breakaway jihadist cell here calling itself Ansar al-Sahra. They are small, but showing similar patterns to the early Afghan Taliban, so Cyrus is tracking them. The Malians are extremely concerned because they appear even more extremist and dangerous than the other armed groups in the area. We don’t believe Ansar al-Sahra could have more than a couple dozen active members, likely all Libyans or Algerians, but Malian intelligence has been watching the mosques closely for recruitment footprints, especially around Timbuktu.”
“I can’t imagine that a group like that would find many recruits in Mali.”
“I agree, Judd. Islam in Mali has always been very moderate. But the remote areas up north are impossible to patrol. Terrorist groups copycatting al-Qaeda are looking for safe havens, out of sight and beyond the reach of the Algerian and Malian militaries. Ansar is probably one of them, but worse because, if we believe the intelligence reporting, their ambition is to attack big targets like Timbuktu. Maybe even Bamako.”
“And the Tuareg? Any signs of a rebellion brewing?”
“Not that we can see. The Tuareg are nomads who have been trading across the Sahara Desert for the past two thousand years.Today they are shuttling more cigarettes and guns than salt and gold, but they still just want to do their trade in peace. No one’s ever been able to control that area. Not the French and not the government in Bamako.”
“Any links to this Ansar al-Sahra?”
“We really don’t know. Mali’s had five Tuareg rebellions over the past fifty years, so the risk of it spinning out of control is always high. Every time the government overreaches, the Tuareg fight back.
“If it is Idrissa, could he be in league with Oumar Diallo? Could this be General Diallo’s second bite at the cherry?”
“Could be.” Larissa nodded gently. “I’ll talk to the British high commissioner here and see what the Brits think. I assume they are tailing him in London. Maybe you can double back with your counterpart at the Foreign Office and see what they know, too.”
“Who else is really a player in Bamako?”
“The French still have eyes and ears here. I’ll talk to them, too, but their ambassador is old-school foreign ministry. I’m not sure he’ll have anything I can’t pick up myself on the cocktail circuit. You’ll have to find a contact in Paris that you can trust.”
“What about the neighbors?”
“They will stay quiet for a few days. I expect the United Nations and the African Union will both issue blanket condemnations of the coup, but no one will even start thinking seriously about next steps for at least a week. A strategy, much less a special envoy, is at least two weeks away. Maybe three.”
“That’s too long,” said Judd. “We are already more than ten hours into this. You and I need to figure out the pressure points. Can you feed the local press, make sure they know we won’t accept the coup, despite what they start hearing from the palace? What about leaking stories that the Americans are pissed off?”
“Sure. I can do that. I can reach out to local Imams, too. They are the real power brokers.”
“Good. What about the army? Can your defense attaché call the other military leaders and take their temperature? See who might still be loyal to Maiga? See if there’s a whiff of a countercoup brewing. That would be a lucky break. That’s Plan A.”
“I will ask Colonel Houston. He seems to have good access. The Malians love him.”
“We also need to keep Washington happy. Eventually you are going to have to give the counterterrorism guys more than what you gave the task force. I’ve been back in the office for twenty minutes and they’re already breathing down my neck. All right?”
“Yes.”
“Anything else that you’re not telling me, Larissa?”
“Keep this to yourself for now, Judd. There’s a breakaway jihadist cell here calling itself Ansar al-Sahra. They are small, but showing similar patterns to the early Afghan Taliban, so Cyrus is tracking them. The Malians are extremely concerned because they appear even more extremist and dangerous than the other armed groups in the area. We don’t believe Ansar al-Sahra could have more than a couple dozen active members, likely all Libyans or Algerians, but Malian intelligence has been watching the mosques closely for recruitment footprints, especially around Timbuktu.”
“I can’t imagine that a group like that would find many recruits in Mali.”
“I agree, Judd. Islam in Mali has always been very moderate. But the remote areas up north are impossible to patrol. Terrorist groups copycatting al-Qaeda are looking for safe havens, out of sight and beyond the reach of the Algerian and Malian militaries. Ansar is probably one of them, but worse because, if we believe the intelligence reporting, their ambition is to attack big targets like Timbuktu. Maybe even Bamako.”
“And the Tuareg? Any signs of a rebellion brewing?”
“Not that we can see. The Tuareg are nomads who have been trading across the Sahara Desert for the past two thousand years.Today they are shuttling more cigarettes and guns than salt and gold, but they still just want to do their trade in peace. No one’s ever been able to control that area. Not the French and not the government in Bamako.”
“Any links to this Ansar al-Sahra?”
“We really don’t know. Mali’s had five Tuareg rebellions over the past fifty years, so the risk of it spinning out of control is always high. Every time the government overreaches, the Tuareg fight back.
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