The Madman Theory by Ellery Queen Page A

Bigelow was at a loss to add anything new, or in such succinctly general terms that Bigelow could not understand them.
    In his report on the Genneman murder Collins used neither tactic. It was an ideal case for passing the buck, but this was an impossible feat—Captain Bigelow’s instincts for dodging were as sensitive as the antennae of a moth. So Collins merely had noted all the facts known to him, in the hope that a latent pattern would show itself. It did not.
    After placing the report in Captain Bigelow’s IN basket, Collins crossed the hall to the main office. Sergeant Easley was on the phone checking out those automobiles at road’s end whose owners’ names he had been able to read from the registration certificates. The list of license numbers provided by the rangers had been sent to the Highway Patrol and would presently be returned with notations regarding car and ownership. Even as Collins looked over the information Easley had assembled, the list came back now including not only license registration but make and year of the vehicle and the owner’s name and address.
    Collins pressed two clerks into service. “We’re looking for a man who made a pack-trip into the mountains back of Cedar Grove. He probably arrived in one of these cars, and we want to find out which.” Then he returned to his own cubbyhole and tried to sort out the facts of the case.
    There were a number of possibilities to consider. The crime might be the work of a psychopath. If this could be demonstrated, any details involving Earl Genneman’s friends and enemies were probably irrelevant.
    Collins made a note: Escapees — mental institutions . The words made him grimace with disgust. He was going to have to do better than that for Captain Bigelow.
    He jotted down another note: Inquire from Phelps regarding other recent traffic over Copper Creek Trail. Inquire if anyone has seen evidence of psycho in area . He thought a few minutes and added: Inquire at grocery store in area as to prospectors . So much for the madman.
    The next possibility was the lone camper. He might also be a lunatic, but the important thing was that he had almost certainly set out up Copper Creek Trail on the heels of the Genneman party. What was more, he must be represented by one of the automobiles now being checked by Easley and the two clerks—a line of investigation which was far and away the most likely to yield results. Of course, there was always the possibility that the murderer had entered the park at some other point, made the long hike to Lomax Falls, and set an ambush for Earl Genneman. But such nicety of planning seemed incredible. The madman hypothesis, as it were, made more sense.
    What of a shotgun trap, actuated by a trip-wire or some such device? The prime objection to such highjinks was its lack of selectivity: the first person to trip the wire would be killed. So again Collins was brought face to face with a madman. Also, a shotgun trap must necessarily leave behind the shotgun. The survivors of Genneman’s party had found no weapon. (Unless they were in collusion? But, considering the disparate personalities of the group, Collins brushed the possibility aside.)
    The man who had followed Earl Genneman and his party up the trail: he must be considered the killer until proved otherwise. And Collins drew a decisive line across the paper.
    What could be said of this unknown man?
    There was a set of basic alternatives: either he had intended to kill Earl Genneman, or he had intended to kill someone else. On the assumption that he meant to kill someone else—that Genneman’s death was a mistake—then the man who was supposed to have been killed must be identified. Collins made a note: Check on parties using Copper Creek Trail on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, especially for men resembling Genneman .
    On the more likely assumption that the murderer made no mistake, that he had meant to kill