percent within twelve months after public exposure. Probability of war increases exponentially thereafter to approach unity within less than twenty-four months of initial exposure. Probability of short-term conventional victory, based on available data, is seventy-five percent. Probability of formation of a secondary front involving the Court of Shadows approaches ninety percent. Probability of offensive deployment of non-conventional weapons of mass destruction approaches unity within six months of start of hostilities. Probability of long-term victory is ten percent under most favorable conditions. Probability of long-term stalemate with global escalation is seventy percent.”
“Define the most favorable conditions for victory,” Layla said, not turning around.
“Successful withdrawal of all surviving segments of the Armistice population to off-world locations, followed by orbital bombardment of the planetary surface by high-energy kinetic projectiles and accompanying gravity pulse deployment against strategic military command centers.”
Rory slumped in his chair. “Jesus. That is the best plan you can come up with?”
“No other options allow for greater than fifty percent long-term survival of the Armistice population once hostilities begin.”
Takeshi folded his arms and stared grimly at the others. “Then we’re stuck with the original projection. We have to derail the movement toward war until the humans realize they can’t win either.”
Layla sighed as she spun away from the window and sat in her chair. “The original projection was based on an aggressive information campaign to diffuse racial tension and xenophobia by educating humanity about the society of the Free People,” she said, clasping her hands together on the table. “Nicholas has laid a good foundation today, but the rest will require a great deal of planning and luck. We can only do so much in preparation. The final effort cannot be done by committee. The humans will need a recognizable leader, a focal point to coax them into cooperating.
“Now that we are exposed, we must act quickly to put a sympathetic face to our people. As much as I hate to say it, by flouting our laws and saving the city, Nicholas may have cast himself as a hero to the humans. We should capitalize on that first impression while there is still time. If the worst befalls us and war becomes inevitable, we must have a single voice to lead us into battle or to offer our surrender. He is the only viable candidate for this role.”
“Nick’s not up to that,” Rory said despondently. “He’ll break under the pressure. Hell, he’s been sober for fewer than six months.”
“We can’t coddle him, Rory,” said Takeshi. “He’s already put himself in the line of fire. We have to keep him alive on the front lines for as long as it takes for him to become strong enough to handle what’s coming.” He turned to Layla. “We should start drafting a succession plan, in case we’re not around to pass over power when the shooting starts.”
“It will have to give him sweeping authority if he is to act in a crisis and we are eliminated,” said Layla.
Rory sighed. “The Armageddon Protocols were designed to allow any one of us to take full executive authority if the other two were killed or incapacitated in battle. I say we just modify them to allow a designate to take command if we’re destroyed or under direct threat of being killed during wartime, and we give him the authorization code.”
“That works,” Take said. He looked across the conference table. “Layla?”
“Nicholas Magister Luscian as our last hope?” She rolled her eyes and indulged in a rare moment of vulgarity. “We are so screwed.” She snorted. “Very well, I agree. However, I would strongly recommend against revealing our intent to Nicholas before the time comes, or he will become too timid to be of use.”
“I can’t argue with that,” said Takeshi. “You said it yourself,
“Define the most favorable conditions for victory,” Layla said, not turning around.
“Successful withdrawal of all surviving segments of the Armistice population to off-world locations, followed by orbital bombardment of the planetary surface by high-energy kinetic projectiles and accompanying gravity pulse deployment against strategic military command centers.”
Rory slumped in his chair. “Jesus. That is the best plan you can come up with?”
“No other options allow for greater than fifty percent long-term survival of the Armistice population once hostilities begin.”
Takeshi folded his arms and stared grimly at the others. “Then we’re stuck with the original projection. We have to derail the movement toward war until the humans realize they can’t win either.”
Layla sighed as she spun away from the window and sat in her chair. “The original projection was based on an aggressive information campaign to diffuse racial tension and xenophobia by educating humanity about the society of the Free People,” she said, clasping her hands together on the table. “Nicholas has laid a good foundation today, but the rest will require a great deal of planning and luck. We can only do so much in preparation. The final effort cannot be done by committee. The humans will need a recognizable leader, a focal point to coax them into cooperating.
“Now that we are exposed, we must act quickly to put a sympathetic face to our people. As much as I hate to say it, by flouting our laws and saving the city, Nicholas may have cast himself as a hero to the humans. We should capitalize on that first impression while there is still time. If the worst befalls us and war becomes inevitable, we must have a single voice to lead us into battle or to offer our surrender. He is the only viable candidate for this role.”
“Nick’s not up to that,” Rory said despondently. “He’ll break under the pressure. Hell, he’s been sober for fewer than six months.”
“We can’t coddle him, Rory,” said Takeshi. “He’s already put himself in the line of fire. We have to keep him alive on the front lines for as long as it takes for him to become strong enough to handle what’s coming.” He turned to Layla. “We should start drafting a succession plan, in case we’re not around to pass over power when the shooting starts.”
“It will have to give him sweeping authority if he is to act in a crisis and we are eliminated,” said Layla.
Rory sighed. “The Armageddon Protocols were designed to allow any one of us to take full executive authority if the other two were killed or incapacitated in battle. I say we just modify them to allow a designate to take command if we’re destroyed or under direct threat of being killed during wartime, and we give him the authorization code.”
“That works,” Take said. He looked across the conference table. “Layla?”
“Nicholas Magister Luscian as our last hope?” She rolled her eyes and indulged in a rare moment of vulgarity. “We are so screwed.” She snorted. “Very well, I agree. However, I would strongly recommend against revealing our intent to Nicholas before the time comes, or he will become too timid to be of use.”
“I can’t argue with that,” said Takeshi. “You said it yourself,
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